VALID 06Z FRI 15/11 - 00Z SAT 16/11 2002
ISSUED: 14/11 09:31Z
FORECASTER: HAVEN

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN MEDITERRANEAN SEA INTO ALPINE COUNTRIES INTO POLAND

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS WRN IBERIAN PENINSULA...WRN FRANCE...SRN BRITISH ISLES

SYNOPSIS

UPPER LOW S OF IRELAND IS SLOWLY MOVING S WITH UPPER TROUGH SLOW MOVING ACROSS WRN IBERIAN PENINSULA. STRONG /100+ KT AT 300 HPA/ JETSTREAM FROM WRN MEDITERRANEAN TO NRN GERMANY IS SLOWLY SHIFTING NE. SEVERAL PVA AREAS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW. AT LOWER LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM POLAND TO WRN ALPES TO WRN MEDITERRANEAN IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST AS A COLDFRONT WITH MOD WAA REGIME ON ITS ERN FLANK.

DISCUSSION

...WRN MEDITERRANEAN SEA INTO ALPINE COUNTRIES INTO POLAND...
WAA EAST OF COLDFRONT AND MOD UVM DUE TO DCVA AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG COLDFRONT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT UVV FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME TSTMS, SINCE SOME CAPE WILL BE AVAILABLE OVER THESE REGIONS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IVOF JETSTREAM /IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS/ WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND VEERING WINDPROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL RESULT INTO HIGH 0-3KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 M2S-2 AND LOCALLY ABOVE 600 M2S-2. SO IF A TSTM BECOMES WELL ORGANIZED...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES AND HIGH-WIND EVENTS. HOWEVER...LOW CAPE WILL LIMIT ALL OVER THREAT AND A SLGT RISK SEEMS SUFFICIENT ATTM. ###S-LY UPSLOPE FLOW (STAU) OF MOIST AND WARM MEDITERRANEAN AIR AT SRN ALPINE AREAS IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOD UVM WILL GIVE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODINGS AS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS###

...WRN IBERIAN PENINSULA...WRN FRANCE...SRN BRITISH ISLES...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN POLAR AIRMASS BEHIND COLDFRONT, MAINLY OVER SEA AND IN COASTAL AREAS. STORMS MIGHT FORM IVOF OF THE UPPER LOW AND NEAR TROUGH OVER WRN IBERIAN PENINSULA. SHEAR WILL BE TOO LOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.

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